Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Key stats: 81.9% Contact, 9.5% SwStr, .375 overall xwOBA, 50.7% HardHit. Projected fourth.

García crushes all three of Sugano’s vulnerable fastballs:

• Four-seamer: .405 xwOBA

• Sinker: .456 xwOBA

• Cutter: .435 xwOBA

Sugano’s splitter suppresses García’s damage, but García has only a 15.1% Whiff rate against it. That means Sugano’s primary weapon is unlikely to erase multiple plate appearances through strikeouts.

Key stats: Projected first, 88.2% Contact, 5.2% SwStr, 46.3% FB.

McGonigle receives the top combo ranking because he combines maximum projected volume with the slate’s best discipline profile. He can reach a combo through hits, runs or extra bases without relying on one perfect power swing.

His strong results against four-seamers, cutters and sliders give him broad matchup coverage.

Key stats: 80.4% Contact, 9.6% SwStr, 28.6% LD. Projected second.

Freeman has the best line-drive rate among the leading hit candidates. He handles Lowder’s four-seamer with a .397 xwOBA and 15.9% Whiff rate, while producing acceptable results against the sinker, changeup and slider.

His power confirmation is weaker, but his contact shape and second lineup position are excellent for producing at least one ball-in-play opportunity.