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Impact — Closed Tips | TipMaster

Impact

Tipster

97 followers

Impact

Cagliari host Atalanta at Unipol Domus in a match where the structural conditions strongly favour a low-scoring game. The hosts are the only team in Serie A yet to score in the opening 20 minutes of a match this season, and the Under 2.5 line has not been breached in 7 of their last 10 home fixtures. With key attackers Pavoletti, Felici, Mazzitelli and Idrissi all ruled out, their offensive threat is minimal.

Atalanta arrive having played 120 minutes against Lazio in the Coppa Italia semi-final on Wednesday — losing on penalties — which brings both physical fatigue and psychological hangover into this trip to Sardinia. Rotation is expected, and their recent away form has been controlled rather than expansive, with results typically landing in the 1-0 or 2-1 range rather than high-scoring affairs.

Both teams have incentive to stay compact — Cagliari for survival, Atalanta to avoid another draining match before the season's final push. The market at 1.90 offers clean value on a matchup that projects as a tight, low-tempo encounter.

04/27 4:30 PM

Under/Over (Total)

Atalanta (A)

@ Cagliari (H)

Under (2.5)

-105

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

-105

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

Boston has been one of the strongest Under teams this season, and all three games in this playoff series have stayed under the total. Philadelphia’s offense is limited with Embiid doubtful, while Boston’s playoff defense and slower half-court pace support another lower-scoring game. Under 213.5 has value if available at 1.90 or better.

04/26 11:00 PM

Under/Over Including Overtime (Total)

Boston Celtics (A)

@ Philadelphia 76ers (H)

128

Under (213.5)

-109

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

-109

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

Bologna host Roma at the Renato Dall'Ara with a clear structural edge on the home side. The model probability for a Bologna win sits around 39%, while the market implies just ~28% at base odds — a gap of roughly 10 percentage points before the boost.

Bologna are unbeaten in their last 5 home Serie A fixtures against Roma and have consistently been competitive in this season's four meetings, winning the Europa League tie 5-4 on aggregate. Roma have lost their last 3 away league games and carry only a slim mathematical chance of reaching the Champions League, adding pressure without necessarily improving their road form.

04/25 4:00 PM

1X2 3-way (Moneyline)

AS Roma (A)

@ Bologna (H)

Bologna

+225

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

+225

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

Genoa host Como at the Ferraris in a match where the market pricing creates a structural edge. Como are priced as clear favourites, yet the total goals market leans heavily toward Under — a combination that typically overstates the away team's win probability. In low-scoring matches, variance increases and home underdogs survive more often than implied odds suggest.

Genoa enter in good form, winning 5 of their last 7 home Serie A fixtures. Como have lost back-to-back league games and were knocked out of the Coppa Italia by Inter, with fatigue and injuries now affecting their consistency. The H2H record supports a tight match — 4 of the last 5 meetings ended in draws.

At 2.00, the market implies 50% probability of Genoa not losing. Adjusted for home advantage, low-scoring match dynamics and Como's current dip, the realistic probability sits closer to 54-56%.

04/26 1:00 PM

Asian Handicap (Spread)

Como (A)

@ Genoa (H)

Genoa (+0.5)

+100

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

+100

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

Arsenal host Newcastle at the Emirates in a must-win Premier League fixture for the Gunners, who are level on points with Man City but behind on tiebreakers after losing to them last weekend. That desperation translates directly into attacking intensity at home.

Newcastle arrive having lost three straight league games and conceded in each of their last 18 matches across all competitions. Their defensive record on the road is poor, and key defenders (Livramento out for season, Schar, Krafth absent, Gordon doubtful) leave them further exposed.

The Over 2.5 has landed in 9 of Newcastle's last 10 Premier League games and in 4 of Arsenal's last 5 home matches. With Arsenal in full attack mode and Newcastle unable to keep clean sheets, goals are the play here.

04/25 4:30 PM

Under/Over (Total)

Newcastle United (A)

@ Arsenal (H)

Over (2.5)

-172

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

-172

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

Sunderland host Nottingham Forest at the Stadium of Light with strong incentive to push for a European place. The hosts have one of the best home defensive records in the league (just 14 goals conceded at home, 3rd best in the PL) and have lost only 3 home games all season.

Forest arrive in decent form but their away record is heavily inflated relative to underlying metrics — entering this match with a -14.5 xGD on the road vs only -6 actual goal difference. That gap signals significant regression risk. Key absences (Murillo, Hudson-Odoi, Savona, Ndoye) further thin their squad.

04/24 7:00 PM

1X2 3-way (Moneyline)

Nottingham Forest (A)

@ Sunderland (H)

Sunderland

+180

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

+180

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

04/27 4:30 PM

Under/Over (Total)

Atalanta (A)

@ Cagliari (H)

Under (2.5)

-105

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

-105

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

04/26 11:00 PM

Under/Over Including Overtime (Total)

Boston Celtics (A)

@ Philadelphia 76ers (H)

128

Under (213.5)

-109

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

-109

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

04/25 4:00 PM

1X2 3-way (Moneyline)

AS Roma (A)

@ Bologna (H)

Bologna

+225

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

+225

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.

Impact

At 2.00, the market implies 50% probability of Genoa not losing. Adjusted for home advantage, low-scoring match dynamics and Como's current dip, the realistic probability sits closer to 54-56%.

04/26 1:00 PM

Asian Handicap (Spread)

Como (A)

@ Genoa (H)

Genoa (+0.5)

+100

posted on TipMaster.ai

Free

+100

Odds Sum

Closed

Event data is relevant when posted by the tipster and may change.