Dare we say that the San Antonio Spurs have figured out the Oklahoma City Thunder? It sure feels that way after Tuesdays’ 130-110 win for the Spurs at home over the defending champs. They are now up 2-0 in the regular season series, and yet, the oddsmakers are still not showing them any respect as the spread on San Antonio is once again almost double-figures on Christmas Day. Granted, they are playing on the road, where the Thunder are 14-0 SU this season, but surely San Antonio can keep things close here? Even without a proper De’Aaron Fox game, they beat this team, plus their win streak has now reached 7 in a row. During this stretch, they’ve covered the spread 5 times.
It’s back to the drawing board for the defending champs, who are puzzled as to why this matchup is proving to be so difficult. SGA delivered his usual 33 points and 8 assists, but the rest of the team didn’t follow suit. The dream of breaking the all-time win record would take a major hit if OKC lost yet again to San Antonio, especially from a morale point of view given that this team is unbeaten at home. There’s quite a few players on the injury report for the Christmas Day game. Most notably, Ajay Mitchell is questionable due to a concussion, while Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams are both game-time decisions with face and heel injuries, respectively.
Since the NBA Cup semi-final loss, the champs have exchanged wins and losses over their next 4 games. Tuesday’s loss in San Antonio has me questioning if they can beat this team, let alone cover the massive spread. I’m way more comfortable backing the Spurs as road underdogs, as they’ve won 5 of 6 away from home and are 4-1 ATS in 5 meetings.
Christmas Day and Madison Square Garden go together like peanut butter and jelly. The New York Knicks and the holiday spotlight are inseparable, and bettors pay a premium every time. That premium is clearly built into this number. The Cleveland Cavaliers, once upon a time, were short underdogs, and have steadily drifted to a bigger price despite no dramatic shift in on-court matchup quality.
Yes, Cleveland has been a gross disappointment against the spread this season, and that inefficiency weighs heavily on perception. However, inefficiency is also what creates opportunity. The Knicks’ ambitions, their NBA Cup win, and living annually in the Christmas Day spotlight has inflated the number next to their name before we go any further. If Cleveland were more profitable overall and more importantly if this game were played on a random January night, Cleveland would not be catching this type of price. The Cavaliers have the tools to compete here and win, not just cover. So we’ll approach it as such. We’ll go in for the kill here and take The Land outright to become Ebenezer Scrooge.
posted on TipMaster.ai
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